Hizbullah-Iran Military Involvement in Syria:A Calculated Move or a Trap? Riad Kahwaji, CEO, INEGMA

Over two years have passed since the start of the Syrian uprising and the violent and bloody struggle ravaging the country, far from over, could be headed towards a prolonged showdown between the Iranian-backed predominantly Muslim Alawite regime and the Western-backed rebels who are predominantly Muslim Sunni parties and fighters. The recent surge in battles along the fronts in southern Homs and western Damascus indicate increased support by Iran and its ally Hizbullah, a Lebanese Shiite armed group. According to Lebanese security sources, Hizbullah has sent its "elite troops" to help the Syrian regime uproot rebels from the Al-Qusair area, south of Homs and along Lebanon's north-eastern borders. The sources added that pro-Syrian armed groups in Lebanon (including some Palestinian factions) have also stepped in to give the regime's forces a hand in the area west of the capital Damascus. Hizbullah has already admitted sending fighters into Syria under the pretext of protecting Lebanese civilians who live in border towns as well as some religious sites near Damascus.
The Lebanese media has reported over the past week that Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah recently visited Tehran, and published a picture of Nasrallah with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Regional analysts believe Iran has decided to throw all its weight behind the Syrian regime and redouble assistance to Syrian forces which have been steadily losing ground on many fronts in the country. Intelligence reports have spoken about a monthly flow of cash in the hundreds of millions of dollars from Tehran to the Syrian treasury, enabling the regime to pay salaries after the state lost its oil fields and other sources of income. Through its intervention in Syria, it appears that Iran is hoping to achieve the following objectives:
Delay and if possible prevent the collapse of the Syrian regime, its sole strategic ally in the Arab world. Syria has constituted a bridge into the Arab world for Iran, and through it Tehran was able to establish strong influence in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories as well as extend its reach into the Mediterranean basin and Israel's border. Iranians leaders know the odds of the Assad regime's survival are slim and hence want to at least buy as much time as possible in the hope that efforts by other Syrian regime allies like Russia and China would help reach a compromise with the West thereby ensuring Iran's interest in a new Syrian political system.
To prepare for a 'Plan B': This is to create a de facto Alawite canton on the Syrian western coastline. Controlling most of the Homs province and western Damascus would provide the Alawite canton with a corridor to link up with the Hizbullah-controlled Shiite areas in the Lebanese Beqaa valley and will provide geographic depth for both areas (Beqaa and the canton) away from the rebels' artillery.
The timing of the major operations in Homs and western Damascus is to pre-empt the long anticipated "big battle of Damascus." Intelligence reports have spoken about thousands of rebels pushing from the south and the east towards the capital to start the major offensive against the regime forces in the capital early next summer. The rebels have managed to control most of the eastern suburbs of the capital plus the southern and some of the northern entrances of Damascus, in addition to the road to the city's airport and the highway to the south. It is widely believed that the collapse of the capital will mean the fall of the regime.
Adrenalin shot to the Syrian regime to revive the slumping moral within it and amongst its allies as well as the allies of Iran in the region, especially Iraq and Lebanon. Daily gains by rebels and continued defections within the ranks of the Syrian regime have raised alarm amongst the allies of the Iranian axis, and there were growing concerns that some of them might jump ship and join the other side. The new Hizbullah-led Syrian regime offensive in Homs has coincided with a widely publicized meeting held by Syrian President Bashar Assad with a number of his political allies in Lebanon. One of the conferees quoted Assad as promising victory.
But the increased direct Hizbullah involvement in the Syrian quagmire does not have the full support of the party's Shiite base in Lebanon. For one, this involvement heightens already growing sectarian tension with the Sunni community in Lebanon and brings the country closer to a renewed civil war. Also, many voices amongst the Lebanese Shiites were wondering why their sons were being sent to be sacrificed to save a dying Syrian regime. That is probably why Hizbullah leaders have emphasized in their speeches that they were sending fighters to "protect Lebanese civilians and Shiite religious sites in Syria" rather than the regime.
However, some pro-Hizbullah politicians have other concerns. They believe that Iran and Hizbullah could be falling in a well-set American-Israeli trap by turning the Syrian theater into a new Afghanistan. "Today we have in Syria a scenario similar to the one that existed in Afghanistan during the occupation of the Soviet Union in the 1970s," the pro-Hizbullah Lebanese politician said. "Thousands of jihadists and Islamic Sunni fighters are swarming into Syria via Western-backed countries like Jordan and Turkey, and they are being thrown into the fight against the Alawite and Shiite Islamic forces, and this could go on for few years," he added. "Eventually, Iran and Hizbullah will be sucked into a war of attrition at a time Tehran is suffering from tough economic sanctions imposed by the international community and the West over its nuclear file. It is the perfect scenario to force the collapse of the Iranian regime the same way the Afghanistan war helped exhaust and bring down the Soviet Union." He noted that Israel and the United States would be excited to see Hizbullah and its allies slaughtered by non-other than the West's arch foe: Al-Qaeda affiliated jihadists. He believes that the leadership in Hizbullah and Iran possibly sees this Afghanistan scenario, but believe they can control the situation and avoid getting sucked into a fatal war of attrition.
Nevertheless, Hizbullah does have limitations to how far it can go and how for how long, before things spiral out of control in Lebanon, where the Sunni community is becoming more radicalized and armed Sunni militias are starting to appear in the north, parts of Beirut, and the south. Hizbullah has willingly allowed the resignation of a government that was seen to be largely under its influence and supported the appointment of a popular Sunni figure backed by Saudi Arabia and the West to form the next cabinet. Analysts believe this is probably a move by Hizbullah to protect its back internally from any Sunni backlash from its anticipated growing military involvement in the Syrian conflict. Having a strong Saudi and Western-backed government that will have Hizbullah representation will provide the proper political cover for the Party's actions in Syria and retain internal Lebanese civil peace.
However, Hizbullah's actions in Syria will pose the biggest security challenge for the new Lebanese Prime Minister designate Tammam Salam and his next government. Some security sources believe Hizbullah will try to limit the damage from its intervention by attempting to achieve as many quick military gains as possible in Syria, and then hand over territory it seizes from the rebels to the Syrian regime's Alwaite militias trained by Iran. The sources also believe Hizbullah will minimize damage by carrying out quick effective military interventions and exits and will avoid prolonged fights that could stir up problems back home. "Attack swiftly, seize, sweep, handover and pull out will be Hizbullah's strategy in the Syrian war to avoid a major backlash and spillover into Lebanon," one intelligence source said. However, history has often taught the lesson that getting into a war is easy, while the tough part is getting out.