Michel Aoun is not in Hezbollah’s plans - Michael Young - The Daily Star.

 Before long we will begin to see how the nuclear deal with Iran affects the situation in Lebanon. However, one thing is certain: Hezbollah will try to exploit the new reality in such a way as to reshape the Lebanese political environment in its favor.

A rather simplistic conclusion that has made the rounds in recent days is that a beneficiary of the accord will be Michel Aoun. The general has spent almost a decade wagering on ties with Hezbollah, the argument goes, and now he is in a fine position to cash in through the presidency.

Yet that seems doubtful. Elections in Lebanon are still won with votes, and Aoun just doesn’t have enough to prevail in a presidential election. Nor will his political rivals be more willing to compromise in this acutely polarized period, in which the principal Sunni states take a step back to assess what the American-Iranian rapprochement really means for them. If anything deadlock could continue for a time.

There is also the fact that Aoun has proved himself to be a calamitous tactician. His effort to mobilize the Aounist rank and file last week was a fiasco. Not only did the Aounists make the mistake of being pushed into a confrontation with the army, one they were bound to lose, but Aoun added insult to injury when he hinted that the army commander, Jean Kahwaji, was behind the decision to rough up Aounist demonstrators.

Worse, the manipulated confrontation sought by Gebran Bassil with Prime Minister Tammam Salam during the Cabinet session backfired. Bassil was taken to task by several ministers and silenced by Salam. And none of the Aounist ministers pulled out of the session when the Cabinet took a decision pertaining to hospitals, even though they had threatened to boycott meetings that dealt with anything other than security appointments.

The Aounists’ narrow margin was already plain a day earlier when Sleiman Franjieh implied that Aoun’s resort to demonstrations was a bad idea. This was probably a message from Hezbollah, its meaning unmistakable: The government will not fall. As Hezbollah fights on in Syria, Sunni cover provided through the government is far more important to it than Aoun’s moods, even if the party won’t abandon its Christian ally.

Hezbollah’s intentions remain vague. The party is confident its strategy in Syria will work, given the vast Iranian resources that will be made available thanks to the lifting of sanctions. On the other hand, the unknown is whether Hezbollah seeks a permanent alteration of the Lebanese political system to protect itself in the future; or, for now, will focus merely on electing a president who sympathizes with its political priorities.

If it’s the latter, then its seems doubtful Aoun is its man. Hezbollah has expressed support for Aoun as president, but that was merely to push the general into impeding the election of someone else by not allowing his bloc to vote. Aoun serves only as an obstruction. The day the party truly wants an election, it knows that, having pushed Aoun into the line of fire for so long, it will have to agree to a compromise candidate with its rivals.

Nor will Aoun’s actions in recent weeks have reassured Hezbollah that he will be the docile president it desires. The man has always been a headache and today he is using sectarian populism to increase his power. Nothing prevents him from employing this tactic against Hezbollah once in office.

Beyond that, Hezbollah is well aware of what was behind the dynamics of Aounist mobilization last week. It had nothing to do with Christian rights or Aounist honor, and everything to do with the quiet struggle for power within the Free Patriotic Movement in preparation for its internal elections in September. Bassil is the favorite to succeed Aoun as president, and his many rivals in the FPM have viewed Shamel Roukoz as a potential counterweight to him, which is why there has been such momentum to have Roukoz named army commander. Indeed, conspiracy theorists suggest that Bassil was delighted by the debacle last Thursday, precisely because it undermined Roukoz’s chances of ever heading the armed forces.

As Hezbollah surveys all this, it must wonder if its Aounist partners will weather the possibly turbulent phase that follows the elections. Bassil has reportedly amended the FPM rules in such a way as to enhance the president’s powers. Hezbollah will likely want to assess who is really in control before taking any major initiatives that involve the Aounists or their leaders.

Nonetheless, Hezbollah’s prime objective is to ensure that the Shiite relationship with Lebanon’s Sunnis remains under control. That is why the party is so keen to keep Salam in office and pursue the dialogue with the Future Movement. This limits Aoun’s options and makes it less likely a president will be elected. Hezbollah is not keen to bring in someone who stands at equal distance between the party and March 14, while it consolidates its own position to benefit from the nuclear deal.

The odds are that we will continue to have a void in the presidency for some time yet. Though the accord with Iran is historic in terms of Iranian relations with the West, it also represents a valuable boost for Iran’s interests in the Arab world. No one has any faith the Americans will reverse such a trend. Indeed, many expect Washington to sign off on whatever happens. The standoff in the Middle East will persist.